5 things to Watch and a Prediction

Eric Stokes, the first round pick of the 2021 Packers from Georgia, took part in a pair of collegiate battles with Ja’Marr Chase, the first round of the 2021 Bengals from LSU. The two former SEC stars are likely to see each other a lot on Sunday, especially with Jaire Alexander playing unexpectedly. Chase looks special. He has four touchdown catches in his first four games, and he is tied for the NFL lead with three catches of at least 40 yards. His chemistry with quarterback Joe Burrow is paying off early in 2021. Can Stokes, who has been targeted 25 times this season, stop Burrow and Chase from taking over the game? Limiting explosive play will be huge for the Packers defense on Sunday.

The Packers may get Elgton Jenkins back, but a big test awaits on the offensive line. The Bengals are four-deep in quality interior defenders, and edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have combined for 30 total pressures in four games, per Pro Football Focus. Hendrickson is the star. He is eighth in ESPN’s pass rate, proving his ability to take over a match. The Bengals rush Hendrickson almost exclusively on the left tackle, so the blindside protector – be it Jenkins or Yosh Nijman – must play well. Hubbard is the NFL’s best rusher in run-stop win rate. Inside, DJ Reader and BJ Hill can be disruptive. This is a good defensive front.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9).

The Packers have to consistently disrupt Joe Burrow in the bag or it could be a long day in defense. When kept clean this season, Burrow has a passing score of 124.5 while completing 77 percent of his passes and an average of 9.8 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus. The numbers drop to 70.0, 57 percent and 6.8 yards under pressure. The Packers need Rashan Gary and Preston Smith to win matchups on the brink and Kenny Clark and Kingsley Keke to wreak havoc indoors. The Bengals are in the middle of the teams with a pass-block win rate and don’t have an elite pass-blocking offensive line, so there should be opportunities to get to Burrow and create negative plays on Sunday.

Ja’Marr Chase isn’t the only Bangladeshi receiver watching Sunday. Tyler Boyd is another. He is the primary recipient of the Bengal slot, meaning he will likely get a match-up against Chandon Sullivan or Kevin King on the most passing plays on Sunday. Boyd is a good player. He’s lined up on more than 90 percent of passing snaps and averaging nearly 2.5 meters per route (a very good number), per Pro Football Focus. The Bengals give him the ball in easy ways and he creates after the catch. Eric Stokes may have his hands full with Chase on the rim, but the Packers also need better play from Sullivan and King on the inside on Sunday.

The Bengals are off to a great start with special teams in 2021. Cincinnati is second in the special teams ranks at Pro Football Focus and fourth in DVOA special teams at Football Outsiders. Kicker Evan McPherson has scored two match-winning field goals, the punting squad led by Kevin Huber is strong and the Bengals cover both punts and kicks well. This week would be a good time for the Packers to make a statement about special teams. Matching the Bengals in the third stage — and eliminating any kind of game-changing foul — would be a big boost.

This game gives me weird vibes. The Packers are coming out of games against two real physical opponents (49ers, Steelers), while the Bengals are at home and got extra rest after last Thursday night’s play. This match is also an afternoon kickoff, which can sometimes affect the energy level of a team used to playing in the late afternoon or prime time. The Packers are also bumped at cornerback, making for a great match-up for Joe Burrow and a great group of Bengals receivers. And I think Cincinnati’s defense is better than it’s called, especially up front. I still love the Packers winning a close game, but sometimes these unusual opponents create weird results. The crowd in Cincinnati will be jacked up for this game. The Packers better be ready to play.